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Just The Sports: 2011-03-13

Just The Sports

Thursday, March 17, 2011

New York Giants QB Eli Manning Has Been Left Behind by Philip Rivers, Ben Roethlisberger

New York Giants quarterback Eli Manning, who was the number one overall pick in the 2004 NFL Draft, is taking the biblical prophecy that the first will be last a little too literally as he has been surpassed by two quarterbacks taken behind him in the first round of the draft.

Both San Diego Chargers quarterback Philip Rivers and Pittsburgh Steelers quarterback Ben Roethlisberger have proven themselves to be much more proficient quarterbacks than Manning, although they were drafted after Manning, and have created a gap so sizable between themselves and Manning that he will likely never catch up.

In Manning's 110 games as the Giants' primary quarterback, games in which he has either attempted the most passes or thrown for the most yards for the Giants, he has completed 58.1 percent of his passes and gained 6.8 yards per pass attempt, 6.2 adjusted yards per pass attempt, 6.1 net yards per pass attempt, and 5.5 adjusted net yards per pass attempt.

Additionally, Manning has thrown 164 touchdowns (4.7 touchdown percentage) and 120 interceptions (3.4 interception percentage), not the kind of touchdown-to-interception ratio that lends itself to great success.

By themselves, Manning's statistics are extremely unimpressive and they pale in comparison to the point of transparency when compared to how Rivers and Roethlisberger have performed when they have been the primary quarterbacks for their respective teams.

After every game week, the Chargers should make it a point to call up Eli and Archie Manning and thank them for forcing the Chargers to execute a draft-day trade that landed the franchise a truly elite quarterback in Rivers. With Rivers, the Chargers' offense is in much better hands than it would be with Manning.

Over the course of his career, which includes 87 games as primary quarterback, Rivers has been statistically significantly better than Manning in completion percentage (63.3 percent to 58.1 percent), yards per pass attempt (8.0 to 6.8), adjusted yards per pass attempt (8.0 to 6.2), net yards per pass attempt (7.2 to 6.1), adjusted net yards per pass attempt (7.2 to 5.5), touchdown percentage (5.3 percent to 4.7 percent), and interception percentage (2.5 percent to 3.4 percent).

There is no facet of being a quarterback in which Rivers has not been superior to Manning, and across the board, every time Rivers drops back to pass, he will gain at least one more yard than will Manning.

Roethlisberger, who was the third quarterback chosen in the first round of the 2004 NFL Draft, has not distanced himself from Manning as much as Rivers has, but he is still light years ahead of Manning in most statistical categories.

After 111 games as the Steelers' primary quarterback, Roethlisberger has proven himself statistically significantly superior to Manning in completion percentage (63.0 percent to 58.1 percent), yards per pass attempt (8.0 to 6.8), adjusted yards per pass attempt (7.6 to 6.2), net yards per pass attempt (6.7 to 6.1), and adjusted net yards per pass attempt (6.4 to 5.5).

Roethlisberger also possesses a better touchdown percentage (5.2 percent to 4.7 percent) and interception percentage (3.2 percent to 3.4 percent), but not to the level of being statistically significant.

Even Manning's best season, which occurred in 2009 and is a year he has never been able to duplicate, represents a statistical feat that both Rivers and Roethlisberger have reached multiple times.

During 2009, in his 15 games as primary quarterback, Manning completed 62.3 percent of his passes and gained 7.9 yards per pass attempt, 7.7 adjusted yards per pass attempt, 7.1 net yards per pass attempt, and 6.9 adjusted net yards per pass attempt.

Rivers can boast three seasons that are even better than Manning's 2009 campaign while Roethlisberger has also posted three seasons that compare favorably to Manning's career season.

No matter how you slice it, the Giants ended up with the least desirable quarterback among these three.

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Tuesday, March 15, 2011

Jeremy Shockey: Shockey Will Provide Very Little Value To The Carolina Panthers

The New Orleans Saints made the right decision in releasing tight end Jeremy Shockey. The Saints have a promising, young tight end in Jimmy Graham and in three years with Shockey on their roster, they found out what the Carolina Panthers will find out the next time football is played, which is that Shockey does little to aid the passing game anymore.

In Shockey's three seasons with the Saints, once his passing statistics were removed from the Saints quarterbacks' numbers, they experienced a .6 percent decrease in completion percentage (from 68.1 percent to 67.7 percent), no change in yards per pass attempt (7.7), a 2.6 percent increase in adjusted yards per pass attempt (from 7.6 to 7.8), a .9 percent increase in yards per completion (from 11.3 to 11.4), a 5.3 increase in touchdown percentage (from 5.7 percent to 6.0 percent), and no change in interception percentage (2.6 percent).

With Shockey on the team, the Saints received only the barest of increases in completion percentage. Other than that negligible change, throwing to Shockey did not benefit the Saints' passing offense and made them worse in other areas.

Even in Shockey's 2009 season, which looked like a return to the form he had early in his career, his out was more a product of the amazing season Saints quarterback Drew Brees had than any newfound ability from Shockey.

That season, once Shockey's statistics were removed, Saints quarterbacks underwent a .6 percent decrease in completion percentage (from 69.9 percent to 69.5 percent), a 1.2 percent increase in yards per pass attempt (from 8.5 to 8.6), a 2.2 percent increase in adjusted yards per pass attempt (from 9.2 to 9.4), a .8 percent increase in yards per completion (from 12.2 to 12.3), a 1.3 percent increase in touchdown percentage (from 7.5 percent to 7.6 percent), and a 21.1 percent decrease in interception percentage (from 1.9 percent to 1.5 percent).

Again, the only improvement Shockey made to the Saints' passing offense was the tiny raise he gave to his quarterbacks' completion percentages. They were better off throwing to other players when it came to the other statistical categories.

Shockey's career tells a virtually identical story to his three-year stint with the Saints. Once his statistics were removed, his quarterbacks experienced .2 percent decrease in completion percentage (from 60.9 percent to 60.8 percent), no change in yards per pass attempt (7.0), a 1.5 percent increase in adjusted yards per pass attempt (from 6.5 to 6.6), a .9 percent increase in yards per completion (from 11.4 to 11.5), a 5.3 percent increase in touchdown percentage (from 4.4 percent to 4.5 percent), and no change in interception percentage (2.9 percent).

In Shockey's defense, there have been seasons in his career where his presence in the passing game did provide a valuable boost to his quarterbacks in at least three of the six statistical categories listed above. Those seasons occurred in 2003, 2004, 2005, 2007, and, to a much lesser extent, 2010.

Since Shockey has played 10 NFL seasons, his quarterbacks have received little to no benefit just as often as they have received a good deal of value from throwing in Shockey's direction.

Based on what he has done over his time in the NFL, going forward, it is unlikely that the Carolina Panthers quarterbacks will become better because of Shockey's presence on the field outside of the tiniest improvement he will provide to their completion percentages.

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